Adaptive Visioning Amidst Volatility: Pivotal Insights for Leaders and Managers

The global landscape appears to be changing at an alarming rate, forcing many global organizations to abandon the luxuries associated with a static vision. As of 2025, the global landscape is challenged with a variety of escalating risks. Wide-scale US policies shifted and global economic practices changed more than just a ledger; they complicated hundreds of thousands of globally interconnected systems, processes, and people. These volatilities—exacerbated by evolving landscapes in regions like Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific—threaten global alliances and relationships, complicate supply chains, inflate costs, and disrupt markets worldwide. For mid-level managers tasked with operational efficiency and executive leaders responsible for charting strategic direction, the ability to adapt is not just advantageous; it's essential for survival.

"Static visions exhaust time, energy, and resources—ultimately becoming nails for a coffin."

Drawing from over two decades of experience as a US Army soldier, a senior warrant officer, and a military aviator, I've witnessed firsthand how rigid plans crumble in volatile operational environments. As an Aviation Mission Survivability Officer (AMSO), it was my responsibility to advise the commander of dynamic threats to friendly personnel, aircraft, and equipment during conflict. In military operations, fixed strategies rarely suffice; even in stable environments. In contested operational environments—much like today's geopolitical arenas—success demands constant recalibration. This principle underpins the mission of Tenor Publications—to equip emerging leaders and managers with practical tools, innovative concepts, and the integration of advancing technologies to maintain an adaptive vision. My work aims to emphasize and delineate the roles and responsibilities of leaders and managers: leaders inspire through adaptive visionary foresight, while managers optimize through disciplined execution. Adaptive visioning bridges these crucial concepts, enabling both to thrive amid chaos.

"Adaptive visioning is a dynamic approach to developing, implementing, and refining an organization's long-term goals in response to unpredictable external forces."

Understanding Adaptive Visioning

Traditional visions chart a course toward a relatively unchanging "North Star"—a five- or ten-year roadmap etched in stone. Consistency is comforting, but it invites complacency. In 2025's turbulent world, it is obsolete. Anyone (including leaders and managers) clinging to static visions will likely bring their organizations to ruin. Dynamic global risks are at an all-time high, with surveys from leading government officials, military flag officers, and CEOs identifying the risks of dynamic operational environments as the top concern for the year. Adaptive visioning treats the organizational vision as a living entity. It incorporates real-time intelligence, scenario-based planning, and iterative adjustments to align with shifting realities.

For executive leaders, this means evolving from inspirational figureheads to agile strategists. Leaders must scan horizons for signals that reshape industries and their organizations. In my Army tenure, we didn't plan for known threats; we expected escalations in adversarial tactics that could jeopardize aircraft and crews. Similarly, leaders today must foster a culture where vision isn't a monologue but a dialogue, responsive to inputs from global events.

"Adaptive visioning is not a monologue, but a dialogue."

Mid-level managers, focused on processes, procedures, and resource allocation, benefit by translating this adaptive vision into actionable tactics. Managers aren't vision-setters, but act as the engines of implementation. Adaptive visioning empowers them to pivot operations without derailing efficiency. Leaders dream big and adapt the "why," managers refine the "how" to ensure resilience. Synchronizing both leaders and managers to adopt adaptive visioning for their organization immediately increases potential for greater success amidst volatility.

The "Imperative" in Volatile Times

Why prioritize adaptive visioning now? 2025 is a powder keg of uncertainty, and the future shows no signs of global stability. Global rivalries, particularly between superpowers, are intensifying, leading to cross-functional, ambiguous alliances rather than clear global relationships. Conflicts and economy-driven threats are amplifying, with volatility becoming a permanent fixture. No corner of the globe can avoid or escape the changing environment.

Consider a real-world problem I regularly faced in the military aviation industry: In conflict, threats like advanced anti-aircraft systems demanded 1) detailed analysis of adversarial capabilities and limitations, 2) deliberate training to react to enemy contact, 3) and well-informed contingency plans. I never advised a commander to arrive at a tactical objective by recommending straight and level flight, at 500 feet above ground level, directly through an entangled web of systems woven by a deadly enemy. Instead, I analyzed and advised on how aircraft could fly at night in varying weather, at 25 feet, or less, above terrain and obstacles, with critical decision points selected along the way to adapt and respond to threat systems and the environment. Static plans do not suffice for military aviation operations and their inevitable contingencies; adaptive plans increase military aviation lethality and survivability. This concept can universally apply.

For corporate leaders, this translates to rethinking expansion strategies. An executive in manufacturing might envision aggressive growth in Asia, but escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region could cause increased operations throughout North and South America instead. Without this flexibility, companies risk obsolescence, as seen in firms caught off-guard by past supply chain disruptions.

Managers, meanwhile, grapple with the operational challenges and obstacles amidst volatility. In my experience studying tactical problems, the difference between success and failure hinges on mid-level management's ability to understand the vision and transform the "future plans" into "current operations". This point of transition is commonly referred to in the military as the FUOPS (future operations) to CUOPS (current operations) handover. The rigidity of static visions complicates mid-level leaders and managers as they grapple with dynamic changes and volatile operational environments.

Today's managers must do the same: monitor metrics and adjust workflows accordingly. Adaptive visioning prevents silos, ensuring managerial efficiency aligns with leadership's evolving goals.

The stakes are high. Global regions brace for a potential crisis. Yet, opportunity abounds for those who adapt. Organizations that embrace adaptive visioning will increase organizational resilience. Leaders must adopt adaptive visioning strategies, and managers must align operations through agile practices.

Practical Applications for Leaders and Managers

Implementing adaptive visioning isn't abstract; it's tactical. It takes both leaders and managers to understand how to apply adaptive visioning within their organizations.

Leaders should...

1) Avoid fixation on a "North Star"; scan the horizon to find indicators of volatility and build those observations into running estimates;

2) Analyze the current vision to determine which aspects of it are static (that ultimately threaten the future of the organization), and identify new opportunities that will have the greatest impact on an adaptive vision;

3) Update the communications plan to dispel dynamic changes as "agents of chaos" and encourage collaborative, adaptive solutions;

4) Establish cross-functional teams to track significant and relevant "indicators" that must be considered in the adaptive vision; and

5) Use tools like scenario modeling to forecast affects. In Army planning, we employed "war game" exercises to simulate threats. Business leaders can adapt this by running quarterly simulations on risks like power shifts or regulatory changes.

Managers should...

1) Focus on modular systems and processes that support the overall concepts that contribute the largest gains toward the adaptive vision;

2) Build flexibility by identifying critical decision points with clearly identified "indicators" that warrant operations to pivot;

3) Use data analytics to measure organizational effectiveness amid volatility;

4) Search for redundancies throughout operations that appear to be tied to static visions and modify those operations with agile practices; and

5) Be ambassadors of the leadership's adaptive vision instead of highlighting obvious barriers to success.

Differentiation of roles and responsibilities is crucial: Leaders cultivate buy-in through communication, framing adaptations as empowering rather than disruptive. Managers enforce through metrics, ensuring adaptations enhance efficiency without chaos. My forthcoming volume, The Leading Edge, will dive deeper into these tools, including the most demanding leadership and management core competencies like emotional intelligence and the integration of AI to allocate more time to the human aspects of leadership and management.

During my career, adaptive visioning amid tactical volatility saved assets and lives. In business, firms like those in energy sectors have thrived by diversifying fuels amid energy wars, demonstrating adaptive visioning's power. In government, emerging technologies streamline public services, applying fiscal responsibility for taxpayers. In military operations, artificial intelligence merges cumbersome analysis, increasing the quality of information and intelligence needed for crucial decisions.

Embracing the Future

As global volatility persists into 2025 and beyond, adaptive visioning emerges as a cornerstone for organizational endurance. For executive leaders, it's about steering with adaptive foresight; for mid-level managers, it's about executing with agility. By leaning into these practices, informed by battle-tested insights from fields like military aviation, professionals will transform threats into advantages. Avoid "straight and level flight" towards the objective. Develop, implement, and refine adaptive visions. Rewrite monologues into outlines to facilitate crucial conversations. Build a coalition of professionals—both leaders and managers alike—to communicate the necessity for adaptive visioning.

Tenor Publications LLC is committed to providing practical applications for growing leaders and managers. Be on the lookout for future book releases that build on these vital concepts. Soon, you'll be able to explore my first volume of books, The Leading Edge, for foundational strategies. Future volumes on emerging concepts and AI in leadership and management will further equip professionals for these dynamic challenges. In an ever-changing world, adaptive visioning isn't optional; it's the path to sustained success.

About the Author - Michael D. Harms

Mike Harms is the founder of Tenor Publications LLC, a dedicated repository for leadership and management books written to meet the demands professionals experience today. With over two decades of experience in the US Army, Mike applies his specialty in analyzing tactical threats to increase the lethality and survivability of aviation assets—protecting people, aircraft, and equipment in high-stakes environments—to an expanding base of growing leaders and managers worldwide.

This battle-tested expertise, combined with a growing educational background, informs his practical approach to equipping emerging leaders and managers with tools to navigate complexity and volatility.

Mike is currently pursuing a Doctorate in Strategic Leadership, with completion projected by the end of 2027. His work emphasizes the distinct roles of leaders—who inspire through visionary foresight—and managers—who optimize through disciplined execution.

His inaugural works will be compiled in his first volume, The Leading Edge, and will include:

The 8 Dials of Great Discipline: How to Make Meaningful Adjustments in an Ever-Changing World

Cleared to Engage: A Guide to Unrestricted Leadership

Mindful Mentorship: How to Meet Them Where They Are

The Advisor: Expanding the Mind of the Advised

Leadership Tools: Take What You Need and Leave What You Don't.

Mike's first volume will set the "tenor" of the organization and will serve as a foundation for honing the latest leadership and management strategies.

Looking ahead, Mike plans to publish two additional volumes: one exploring emerging leadership and management concepts for the next decade, and another on integrating artificial intelligence into these practices. Through Tenor Publications, he delivers actionable insights to help growing professionals maximize their potential in dynamic settings.

Follow Mike on LinkedIn for future articles.